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Disney's Christopher Robin may win a tight race against Mission: Impossible - Fallout at the box office this weekend. The Mouse House's latest live-action reimagining is set to face stiff competition when it opens on Friday, August 3. Though Fallout obviously appeals to a very different demographic, it's become one of the biggest hits of the summer thanks to its widespread critical praise. Many consider it to be one of the greatest action movies of the last few years. Even with Christopher Robin targeting families, that's still quite a holdover to go against.
Fallout proved the Mission: Impossible brand is stronger than ever, scoring the franchise's biggest opening weekend. While it should have legs as we make our way through August (there isn't much in the way of direct competition), its time at the top of the box office charts may be short-lived. This week is shaping up to be a close showdown between the major releases.
According to Box Office Pro, both Christopher Robin and Mission: Impossible 6 are projected to earn approximately $31.5 million this weekend. The outlet gives the edge to Disney's film, citing its cross-generational appeal. That being said, it wouldn't be too surprising if the IMF emerged victorious again. When compared to Disney's other live-action reboots, Christopher Robin is arriving to theaters with limited fan fare. In contrast, Beauty and the Beast and The Jungle Book each made over $100 million domestically in their first three days. Winnie the Pooh and his friends are generating more interest than the Pete's Dragon remake ($21.5 million), but this should be a modest debut by Disney's standards.
It's possible Christopher Robin's estimates could fluctuate. Curiously, Disney has opted to hold back the review embargo, so it's difficult to get a definitive read on the word-of-mouth. The trailers and TV spots have hinted at a charming adventure starring the silly old bear, but it's possible the film falls short of expectations. In the event that happens, then it could negatively impact the film's commercial appeal. However, if Christopher Robin is a hit with critics, it should be able to parlay its reception into a fruitful weekend. It should be noted that the Pooh franchise has never been much of a draw (2011's animated film earned $26.6 million total), though Christopher Robin has gotten a visible marketing push.
This week also sees the release of two more movies, The Spy Who Dumped Me and The Darkest Minds. However, neither are expected to challenge the top two movies for ticket sales. The former is projected to gross around $14.4 million in its opening weekend, while the latter should make only $8.4 million.